Amazon MGM pushes back as Melania faces a potential box office setback during Super Bowl weekend, with early numbers suggesting the documentary could struggle to maintain its momentum. According to Friday estimates, the film is heading toward a steep drop and may land around tenth place with roughly $2.4 million, though some projections indicate it could finish slightly higher in ninth.
Despite the softer performance, Amazon MGM Studios remains confident about the film’s overall trajectory and long-term strategy.
Amazon MGM Stands Firm on Strategy
Amazon MGM issued a statement emphasizing that the documentary has already delivered a strong theatrical start. The film opened to $7.2 million last weekend — an impressive debut and the largest opening for a traditional documentary in nearly a decade, excluding concert and nature releases.
Distribution chief Kevin Wilson noted that the theatrical run is just the first phase of a broader plan. According to the studio, the cinema release is designed to build awareness and audience engagement ahead of the film’s eventual arrival on Prime Video.
The company views the current box office performance as a foundation for long-term streaming success rather than a standalone measure of the project’s impact.
Inside the High-Profile Project
The documentary offers a behind-the-scenes look at the 20 days leading up to Donald Trump’s second presidential inauguration in 2025. It has attracted significant media attention, partly because it was widely described as one of the most expensive documentaries ever produced.
While the full budget has not been disclosed, Amazon MGM reportedly paid $40 million for worldwide theatrical and streaming rights, along with additional material for a planned docuseries. Reports suggest Melania Trump earned $28 million for her involvement, with director Brett Ratner and longtime manager Marc Beckman also playing key roles in the project.
The studio is also believed to have invested heavily in marketing, with a global campaign estimated at around $35 million.
Expanding Theaters Amid Mixed Results
Following its stronger-than-expected opening weekend, the studio expanded the film’s footprint by adding approximately 200 additional theaters heading into Super Bowl weekend. By Friday, the documentary’s domestic total had reached $11.8 million, earning $865,000 for the day and placing ninth.
International earnings have not yet been disclosed, suggesting the film may be seeing limited traction overseas despite playing in more than 20 markets.
Streaming Plans and Long-Term Value
Although an official streaming date has not been announced, industry insiders say the film will move to Prime Video relatively soon. The strategy allows Amazon to leverage theatrical marketing to boost awareness before launching a second promotional push for streaming.
Executives believe the dual-release model creates two key value moments — first in theaters and then at home — while audience exit data reportedly shows strong interest in rewatching the film once it becomes available online and in the upcoming companion docuseries.
Critics vs. Audience: A Sharp Divide
Critical reception has been overwhelmingly negative, with the film holding a very low score from professional reviewers. In contrast, audience ratings have been exceptionally high, creating one of the widest gaps between critics and viewers in recent memory.
The disparity sparked speculation about the authenticity of audience responses, but the ratings platform clarified that the scores reflect verified ticket purchases. Industry analysts note that films driven by dedicated fan audiences often generate unusually strong audience ratings.
A Quiet Weekend at the Movies
The timing of the release also presents challenges. Super Bowl weekend is traditionally one of the slowest periods of the year for moviegoing, as audiences focus on the big game. Major studios typically avoid launching major titles during this window, leaving theaters filled with smaller independent releases, including several horror films and niche event screenings.
While the immediate box office outlook may be modest, Amazon MGM appears focused on the bigger picture — betting that theatrical exposure now will translate into stronger streaming performance later.
